- the increases will be a reverse-L shape, modest increases in the next 2 years (with ODA to GNI fixed at 0.56%) with the big increases to 0.7% in the 2013-2015 period
- administration costs--real cuts by 33% in line with other departments
- "an international development programme that contributes to national security goals" with spending to support fragile states and conflict affected states increasing from 22% to 30% of ODA by 2014/15
Other quick observations:
- the percent of ODA controlled by DFID will remain roughly constant
- the climate settlement is multi-department and will take some time to unpack
- there is a statement in the DFID settlement that "80% of poverty reduction is accounted for by long term growth in average incomes". I don't recognise this number--interesting to know where it came from and which study it is based on.
- there's nothing about about empowering women in the DFID settlement
- BBC's Newsnight TV programme has just finished and did not mention any international development backlash
Collier's counter argument to Sumner is that (a) his billion are trapped and (b) development cooperation is needed to unlock the traps. The fact is we don't have evidence to show that the poor trapped in the Collier countries are any more trapped than the poor trapped in other countries such as India. We also don't know if development cooperation is any better at springing traps in the former versus the latter countries. More evidence is needed on these questions.